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Arms Trafficking Threat (Central America)

Central America remains a key corridor for illicit firearms trafficking, driven by weak institutions, surplus weapons from past conflicts, and the exploitation of porous borders by organized crime. U.S.-sourced firearms and limited regional data further complicate control efforts, despite growing international cooperation and recent policy initiatives.

Central America (CENTAM) is a critical hub for firearms trafficking due to its strategic geographic location, porous borders, and weak regulatory and law enforcement structures. Historical legacies of civil conflicts have resulted in surplus weaponry diverted into illicit markets, fueling regional instability and violence, particularly in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Excessive stockpiles of confiscated or obsolete firearms present severe security risks, compounded by mismanagement and corruption, enabling weapon diversion into criminal markets. Studies advocate for firearm destruction as a crucial measure to prevent recirculation, reduce risks, and strengthen public trust in law enforcement.

The illicit arms trade is significantly driven by weapons from the United States, either legally exported and later diverted or illegally trafficked via straw-buying schemes. Between 2015 and 2019, approximately 40% of firearms recovered in CENTAM traced back to the U.S., underscoring a critical vulnerability in arms control policies.

Regional efforts to combat this issue emphasize improved firearm marking, registration, and destruction practices, bolstered by international cooperation. However, significant gaps in reliable data hinder effective policymaking. Reports consistently highlight the need for enhanced information gathering, intergovernmental coordination, and capacity-building.

Recent regional commitments, such as the 2025 Central America and Dominican Republic Firearms Roadmap, aim to address these challenges through enhanced collaboration. Key trafficking hubs like Panama, Belize, and Guatemala require targeted interventions to disrupt their roles in illicit trade networks.

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Below is a curated list of resources regarding arms trafficking in Central America. To explore compiled research and academic papers on arms trafficking visit our repository using the button to the right.

Nov 19, 2024 — Under the Gun: Firearms Trafficking in Latin America and the Caribbean: Central America’s role in Weapons Trafficking: Central America’s geographic position makes it essential for the movement of illicit firearms. The region’s porous borders, and limited law enforcement coordination, allows for firearms to fuel crimes across multiple countries.

Regulatory Framework: Many of the CENTAM governments struggle with inefficient structures to govern firearms. Inconsistent legislation, underfunded regulatory entities, and internal corruption hinders the effectiveness of arms control.

Historical Context: The legacy of past conflicts has left CENTAM with a surplus of firearms. Weapons from civil wars are often diverted from the military and police reserves and then into the black market. These firearms are then trafficked into neighboring countries, contributing to the regional instability.

Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Azucena Duarte CSIS

Jan 22, 2022 — Gun Destruction in Central America and the Caribbean: A Look at the Destruction of Firearms in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic: Excessive Firearm Stockpiles Pose Security Risks: The publications details that in CENTAM and the Caribbean, thousands of confiscated or obsolete firearms are stored in overcrowded state-run facilities, especially judicial depots, creating significant security challenges.

Inventory Mismanagement Enables Diversion: Because of poorly managed weapon stockpile, the increased risk of diversion into illicit markets is higher.

Destruction is Key to Prevention and Accountability: The report argues that physical destruction of surplus and illegal firearms is essential to prevent their recirculation, reduce dangerous stockpiles, and reinforce public confidence in the rule of law and security institutions.

Leon Wantland Iepades

Jan 11, 2022 — Firearms Trafficking: More Information is Needed to Inform U.S. Efforts in Central America: Illicit Firearms Drive Regional Violence: Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras face persistently high levels of violence fueled by widespread access to illicit firearms. Between 2015 and 2019, 40% of approximately 27,000 recovered firearms traced by ATF originated from the U.S., with nearly half diverted internally rather than smuggled.

U.S. Straw-Buying Problem: Over 100,000 firearms were legally exported from the U.S. to these four countries during the same period, despite their lack of domestic firearm manufacturing. Criminal groups obtain weapons through theft, diversion, and illicit markets, exacerbating insecurity across the region.

Policy Gaps Undermine Targeted Interventions: While U.S. agencies have supported regional security through capacity-building and intelligence sharing, firearms trafficking remains an undefined policy priority. The lack of country-specific data limits the effectiveness of U.S. efforts, prompting GAO recommendations for improved information-gathering to better address firearms-related violence and enhance regional security.

U.S Government Accountability Office

Nov 16, 2021 — Taking Up Arms: Firearms and Extortion in Central America: Firearms Fuel Gang Violence and Criminal Expansion: In northern Central America, easy access to firearms significantly enhances the operational capacity of maras and gangs, enabling extortion, territorial control, and increased violence.

Weak Governance Enables Illicit Access: Lax regulatory frameworks, permissive gun laws, and poor enforcement allow criminal actors to acquire firearms with minimal risk, while inadequate control within state security forces exacerbates the problem.

Data Gaps Undermine Policy Effectiveness: A lack of reliable, up-to-date data on trafficking routes, weapon volumes, and enforcement outcomes hinders efforts to address arms trafficking—highlighting the urgent need for improved regulation, oversight, and information systems.

Multifaceted Analysis Reveals Key Trends and Gaps: This report maps sources, hotspots, routes, and actors in the regional arms trade, examines firearm regulations in the Northern Triangle, and presents case studies—culminating in a call for improved monitoring, regulation, and coordinated regional responses.

Guillermo Vazquez del Marcado, Luis Felix, Gerardo Carballo Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Apr 1, 2021 — Understanding the Flow of Illegal Weapons in Central America: Central America Is a Key Corridor for Illicit Arms and Drugs: The report states that the position between South American producers and North American consumers allows Central America to serve as a strategic transit hub for both narcotics and illegal firearms, contributing to high levels of criminal violence.

Institutional Reforms Aim to Curb Arms Diversion: Regional governments are working to improve arms control through reforms focused on strengthening national mechanisms like weapons marking and registration.

International Cooperation Supports Arms Control Efforts: These reforms are largely driven by international agreements and supported by organizations such as the OAS and UNLIREC, highlighting the importance of multilateral collaboration in reducing illicit arms flows.

Katherine Aguirre, Rebecca Peters, Ana Yancy Espinoza ResearchGate

Firearms Trafficking: Central America: Firearms Trafficking Drives Regional Violence: The proliferation, possession, and trafficking of firearms are key drivers of rising homicide rates in Central America, exacerbated by weak institutions and limited regulatory enforcement.

Data Limitations Obscure the Full Picture: A lack of comprehensive official data on firearm movement—particularly within Central America—complicates efforts to assess the scope of trafficking. While ATF data offers insight into U.S.-linked flows, homicide rates and firearms legislation must be used as additional proxies to understand the market.

Eduardo Salcedo-Albaran, Diana M. Santos Cubides, Luis Jorge Garay Salamanca ResearchGate

Oct 18, 2024 — Firearms Trace Data: Central America - 2023: NTC’s Firearm Trace Data: In 2023, the ATF’s National Tracing Center (NTC)—the United States' only crime gun tracing facility—processed over 630,000 firearm traces for the U.S. and 77 international partners. Traces depend on accurate firearm identifiers, including the manufacturer, model, caliber, and serial number. The data includes firearms recovered in Central America (specifically Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua) with recovery dates or trace entries between January 1 and December 31, 2023. Duplicate traces were excluded from the data.

ATF

Sep 27, 2023 — Firearms Trace Data: Central America - 2022: NTC’s Firearm Trace Data: In 2022, NTC traced over 599,000 firearms for the U.S. and 68 partner nations. The data reflects firearms recovered in Central America—specifically Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, and Costa Rica (no traces were submitted for Nicaragua in 2022)—with either a listed recovery date or an entered trace date between January 1 and December 31, 2022. Data is organized by recovery year to provide more precise investigative insights.

ATF

Feb 10, 2025 — Central America and Dominican Republic Firearms Roadmap: The Arms Sales Risk Index: Now in its fourth year, the Arms Sales Risk Index provides a data-driven framework to evaluate the potential negative outcomes of U.S. arms exports, helping to quantify risks that are often overlooked in policy debates.

Improved Risk Awareness Can Inform Policy: While not an exact science, the index serves as a practical tool to help U.S. policymakers more rigorously assess arms sales decisions and determine which recipient nations may pose unacceptable risks.

UN Office of Disarmament Affairs

Sep 15, 2022 — Firearms Trace Data: Central America - 2021: NTC’s Firearm Trace Data: In 2021, NTC traced over 543,000 firearms for the U.S. and 72 partner nations. This report includes firearms recovered in Central America (Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua) with recovery dates or trace entries between January 1 and December 31, 2021. All included traces listed recovery dates, and duplicates were removed. Data is organized by recovery year rather than trace initiation date to better reflect investigative trends.

ATF

Nov 16, 2021 — Firearms Trace Data: Central America - 2020: NTC’s Firearm Trace Data: In 2020, NTC traced over 484,000 firearms for the U.S. and 74 partner countries. This particular data set focuses on traced firearms from CENTAM that were sent to ATF in 2020. This report includes firearms recovered in Central America (Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua) with recovery dates or trace entries between January 1 and December 31, 2020. In 2020, 99.9% of all Central America traces listed a recovery date.

ATF

Nov 10, 2025 — Central America and Dominican Republic Firearms Roadmap: Regional Commitment to Combat Arms Trafficking: In February 2025, Central American countries and the Dominican Republic adopted a coordinated roadmap to prevent the illicit trafficking and proliferation of firearms, ammunition, and explosives, marking a significant regional effort to enhance security, peace, and development.

Enhanced Collaboration and Strategic Alignment: The roadmap promotes intergovernmental and inter-institutional cooperation, complementing ongoing U.S. and international initiatives and reinforces commitments to address high homicide rates and insecurity.

Data-Driven Implementation Still Needed: While U.S. agencies have provided support through capacity-building, firearms tracing, and intelligence sharing, they emphasize the need for improved data to tailor assistance and maximize the impact of regional efforts to curb arms trafficking.

United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs

May 1, 2023 — Regional Hubs of Illicit Trade in Central America: Panama, Belize, and Guatemala: Focus on Interconnected Threats in Illicit Trade: The Hubs of Illicit Trade project, launched by TraCCC and AITI at George Mason University in 2022, aims to inform policymakers about the interconnected harms of illicit trade, including money laundering and sanctions evasion, while providing strategies for disrupting these networks.

Panama, Belize, and Guatemala as Central Hubs: This report highlights Panama, Belize, and Guatemala as key regional centers for illicit trade in Central America, underscoring their roles in facilitating transnational crime and economic crimes such as money laundering.

Strategic Recommendations for Disruption: The report emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to dismantle the interconnected nature of illicit trade hubs in the region, offering evidence-based recommendations for disrupting these networks and mitigating their impacts on security and governance.

Yulia Krylova, Daniel Rico HUBS OF ILLICIT TRADE (HIT) PROJECT

Jan 2, 2022 — The Armed Arena: Arms Trafficking in Central America: Violence Rooted in a Complex Armed Arena : High levels of violence in CENTAM's Northern Triangle stem from an “armed arena” where state and nonstate actors—including military forces, law enforcement, and organized crime—interact, collaborate, and exchange resources, reinforcing each other’s influence and power.

Firearms Trafficking as a Central Driver: The report suggests Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador highlight two critical relationship networks sustaining the armed arena: the criminal justice system (investigations, ballistics, inventories, and arms destruction) and the arms market (regional trafficking, internal sales, and state licensing).

Policy Impact Depends on Disrupting Relationships: The effectiveness of arms control policies hinges on their ability to identify and dismantle key relationships within the armed arena.

Cambridge University Press Latin America Research Review

Small Arms, Light Weapons Dashboard: The Small Arms, Light Weapons Dashboard is a publicly available tool utilizing data scrapped from the web using a large-language model (LLM) created by our partner at Daitrix (a software development company) and using the methodology composed by CRIES (an Argentinian think tank) to geolocate incidents of weapons seizures across Latin America and the Caribbean at real-time speed.

FIU SRH

Firearms Trafficking: The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime data on firearm trafficking tracks arms seizures, found and surrendered arms, and tracing outcomes from across the globe. It can be filtered to show results from specific dimensions, regions/subregions, and years. The data is updated using the annual Illicit Arms Flows Questionnaire (IAFQ).

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime