Arms Trafficking Threat
Topics / Spotlights
Central America remains a key corridor for illicit firearms trafficking, driven by weak institutions, surplus weapons from past conflicts, and the exploitation of porous borders by organized crime. U.S.-sourced firearms and limited regional data further complicate control efforts, despite growing international cooperation and recent policy initiatives.
Central America (CENTAM) is a critical hub for firearms trafficking due to its strategic geographic location, porous borders, and weak regulatory and law enforcement structures. Historical legacies of civil conflicts have resulted in surplus weaponry diverted into illicit markets, fueling regional instability and violence, particularly in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
Excessive stockpiles of confiscated or obsolete firearms present severe security risks, compounded by mismanagement and corruption, enabling weapon diversion into criminal markets. Studies advocate for firearm destruction as a crucial measure to prevent recirculation, reduce risks, and strengthen public trust in law enforcement.
The illicit arms trade is significantly driven by weapons from the United States, either legally exported and later diverted or illegally trafficked via straw-buying schemes. Between 2015 and 2019, approximately 40% of firearms recovered in CENTAM traced back to the U.S., underscoring a critical vulnerability in arms control policies.
Regional efforts to combat this issue emphasize improved firearm marking, registration, and destruction practices, bolstered by international cooperation. However, significant gaps in reliable data hinder effective policymaking. Reports consistently highlight the need for enhanced information gathering, intergovernmental coordination, and capacity-building.
Recent regional commitments, such as the 2025 Central America and Dominican Republic Firearms Roadmap, aim to address these challenges through enhanced collaboration. Key trafficking hubs like Panama, Belize, and Guatemala require targeted interventions to disrupt their roles in illicit trade networks.
Recommended Reading
Regulatory Framework: Many of the CENTAM governments struggle with inefficient structures to govern firearms. Inconsistent legislation, underfunded regulatory entities, and internal corruption hinders the effectiveness of arms control.
Historical Context: The legacy of past conflicts has left CENTAM with a surplus of firearms. Weapons from civil wars are often diverted from the military and police reserves and then into the black market. These firearms are then trafficked into neighboring countries, contributing to the regional instability. Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Henry Ziemer, Azucena Duarte CSIS
Inventory Mismanagement Enables Diversion: Because of poorly managed weapon stockpile, the increased risk of diversion into illicit markets is higher.
Destruction is Key to Prevention and Accountability: The report argues that physical destruction of surplus and illegal firearms is essential to prevent their recirculation, reduce dangerous stockpiles, and reinforce public confidence in the rule of law and security institutions. Leon Wantland Iepades
U.S. Straw-Buying Problem: Over 100,000 firearms were legally exported from the U.S. to these four countries during the same period, despite their lack of domestic firearm manufacturing. Criminal groups obtain weapons through theft, diversion, and illicit markets, exacerbating insecurity across the region.
Policy Gaps Undermine Targeted Interventions: While U.S. agencies have supported regional security through capacity-building and intelligence sharing, firearms trafficking remains an undefined policy priority. The lack of country-specific data limits the effectiveness of U.S. efforts, prompting GAO recommendations for improved information-gathering to better address firearms-related violence and enhance regional security. U.S Government Accountability Office
Weak Governance Enables Illicit Access: Lax regulatory frameworks, permissive gun laws, and poor enforcement allow criminal actors to acquire firearms with minimal risk, while inadequate control within state security forces exacerbates the problem.
Data Gaps Undermine Policy Effectiveness: A lack of reliable, up-to-date data on trafficking routes, weapon volumes, and enforcement outcomes hinders efforts to address arms trafficking—highlighting the urgent need for improved regulation, oversight, and information systems.
Multifaceted Analysis Reveals Key Trends and Gaps: This report maps sources, hotspots, routes, and actors in the regional arms trade, examines firearm regulations in the Northern Triangle, and presents case studies—culminating in a call for improved monitoring, regulation, and coordinated regional responses. Guillermo Vazquez del Marcado, Luis Felix, Gerardo Carballo Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Institutional Reforms Aim to Curb Arms Diversion: Regional governments are working to improve arms control through reforms focused on strengthening national mechanisms like weapons marking and registration.
International Cooperation Supports Arms Control Efforts: These reforms are largely driven by international agreements and supported by organizations such as the OAS and UNLIREC, highlighting the importance of multilateral collaboration in reducing illicit arms flows. Katherine Aguirre, Rebecca Peters, Ana Yancy Espinoza ResearchGate
Data Limitations Obscure the Full Picture: A lack of comprehensive official data on firearm movement—particularly within Central America—complicates efforts to assess the scope of trafficking. While ATF data offers insight into U.S.-linked flows, homicide rates and firearms legislation must be used as additional proxies to understand the market. Eduardo Salcedo-Albaran, Diana M. Santos Cubides, Luis Jorge Garay Salamanca ResearchGate
Improved Risk Awareness Can Inform Policy: While not an exact science, the index serves as a practical tool to help U.S. policymakers more rigorously assess arms sales decisions and determine which recipient nations may pose unacceptable risks. UN Office of Disarmament Affairs
Enhanced Collaboration and Strategic Alignment: The roadmap promotes intergovernmental and inter-institutional cooperation, complementing ongoing U.S. and international initiatives and reinforces commitments to address high homicide rates and insecurity.
Data-Driven Implementation Still Needed: While U.S. agencies have provided support through capacity-building, firearms tracing, and intelligence sharing, they emphasize the need for improved data to tailor assistance and maximize the impact of regional efforts to curb arms trafficking.
United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs
Panama, Belize, and Guatemala as Central Hubs: This report highlights Panama, Belize, and Guatemala as key regional centers for illicit trade in Central America, underscoring their roles in facilitating transnational crime and economic crimes such as money laundering.
Strategic Recommendations for Disruption: The report emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to dismantle the interconnected nature of illicit trade hubs in the region, offering evidence-based recommendations for disrupting these networks and mitigating their impacts on security and governance. Yulia Krylova, Daniel Rico HUBS OF ILLICIT TRADE (HIT) PROJECT
Firearms Trafficking as a Central Driver: The report suggests Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador highlight two critical relationship networks sustaining the armed arena: the criminal justice system (investigations, ballistics, inventories, and arms destruction) and the arms market (regional trafficking, internal sales, and state licensing).
Policy Impact Depends on Disrupting Relationships: The effectiveness of arms control policies hinges on their ability to identify and dismantle key relationships within the armed arena. Cambridge University Press Latin America Research Review
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